MARKETS · Settled
Will above 50000 jobs be added in September 2026?
The answer: NO
The panel of 20 models averaged 70% YES; 1 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 70%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
September 2026 payrolls missed 50,000, panel sat with the crowd at 70% but one model correctly doubted it
The outcome was NO. The panel mean was 70%, median 74%, matching the crowd Polymarket price at 70%. Only one model, Llama 4 Maverick (22%), called NO and scored best; many models strongly favoured YES, the worst was Gemini 2.5 Pro at 97%. The records include no theses or drivers for any forecasts.
- Outcome: NO, settled on Kalshi market KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T50000.
- Panel mean 70% and median 74% versus the crowd Polymarket price 70%.
- Only 1 of 20 models called the outcome: Llama 4 Maverick at 22%.
- High-low spread 97% down to 22%, indicating large disagreement among models.
- Best Brier was Llama 4 Maverick (0.048); worst was Gemini 2.5 Pro (0.941).
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Gemini 2.5 Pro97%
- Claude Sonnet 4.588%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash88%
- GPT-582%
- Kimi K280%
- Claude Opus 4.178%
- DeepSeek R178%
- Qwen3 235B78%
- Mistral Large78%
- Grok 4.576%
- GPT-5 + web search72%
- DeepSeek V370%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro69%
- Perplexity Sonar66%
- GPT-5 Mini63%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search55%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search53%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search51%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search50%
- Llama 4 Maverick22%