MARKETS · Settled
Will above 40000 jobs be added in September 2026?
The answer: NO
The panel of 20 models averaged 70% YES; 1 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 73%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
NO; panel leaned YES (mean 70%, median 74%) while crowd was 73%, one model called NO
The outcome was NO. The panel mean was 70% and median 74%, compared with the crowd Polymarket price at 73%. Llama 4 Maverick made the best call at 23% and was the only model to call the outcome. Most models favoured YES, including two at 88%, which missed.
- Outcome: NO.
- Panel mean 70%, median 74%, 20 models, 1 called it.
- Crowd: Polymarket price frozen at 73%.
- Only Llama 4 Maverick forecast NO at 23% and was correct.
- Highest model forecasts were 88% (Kimi K2 and Qwen3 235B) and were far off.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Kimi K288%
- Qwen3 235B88%
- DeepSeek R187%
- Claude Sonnet 4.585%
- GPT-584%
- GPT-5 Mini82%
- Claude Opus 4.182%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro82%
- DeepSeek V375%
- Grok 4.574%
- GPT-5 + web search74%
- Mistral Large68%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash65%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro63%
- Perplexity Sonar62%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search58%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search57%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search56%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search56%
- Llama 4 Maverick23%