MARKETS · Settled
Will above 30000 jobs be added in September 2026?
The answer: NO
The panel of 20 models averaged 73% YES; 2 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 74%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Panel split, crowd favoured YES 74% but outcome was NO; two models correctly called NO
The outcome was NO. The crowd was at 0.74, quoted as a Polymarket price frozen when asked. The panel mean was 0.73 and the median was 0.8, compare the mean with the crowd. The best call was Kimi K2, which recorded 3% YES and scored a near-zero Brier 0.001. Most misses were high-probability YES forecasts, the strongest being DeepSeek V3 at 92% YES.
- Outcome: NO, resolved 2026-10-02 13:45:06.
- Crowd 74% YES, Polymarket price frozen when the question was asked.
- Panel: 20 models, mean 73% YES, median 80% YES, 2 models called it.
- Best Brier: Kimi K2 brier 0.001 at 3% YES; worst Brier: DeepSeek V3 brier 0.846 at 92% YES.
- Forecast spread: lowest 3% YES, highest 92% YES, disagreement present.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- DeepSeek V392%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro90%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro88%
- Claude Sonnet 4.585%
- Claude Opus 4.185%
- Qwen3 235B85%
- DeepSeek R185%
- GPT-5 Mini84%
- GPT-584%
- Perplexity Sonar82%
- Grok 4.578%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search77%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search76%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search76%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash75%
- GPT-5 + web search74%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search71%
- Mistral Large68%
- Llama 4 Maverick7%
- Kimi K23%