MARKETS · Settled
Will above 125000 jobs be added in September 2026?
The answer: NO
The panel of 20 models averaged 54% YES; 5 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 20%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Jobs <125,000: panel leaned YES, crowd and a few models correctly took NO
The outcome was NO. The panel mean was 54%, median 58%, versus the crowd Polymarket price at 20%, which correctly called NO. DeepSeek V3 + web search made the best call, assigning 13% YES and posting the lowest Brier, 0.017. Misses were models that favoured YES, some very strongly, producing large Brier scores.
- Outcome: NO, resolved to Kalshi market KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T125000.
- Crowd: Polymarket price frozen at 20% YES, it called the outcome correctly.
- Panel mean 54% and median 58% favoured YES, 5 of 20 models called NO.
- Best Brier: DeepSeek V3 + web search, 13% YES, Brier 0.017.
- Worst Brier: DeepSeek V3, 85% YES, Brier 0.723.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- DeepSeek V385%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro78%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro70%
- GPT-569%
- GPT-5 Mini68%
- DeepSeek R165%
- Claude Sonnet 4.564%
- Mistral Large62%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash60%
- Grok 4.558%
- Kimi K258%
- Claude Opus 4.158%
- Perplexity Sonar56%
- Qwen3 235B54%
- Llama 4 Maverick52%
- GPT-5 + web search43%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search23%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search20%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search18%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search13%