MARKETS · Settled
Will above 100000 jobs be added in September 2026?
The answer: NO
The panel of 20 models averaged 62% YES; 5 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 35%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Panel favoured YES, crowd (35%) and five models favoured NO; outcome NO
The outcome was NO. The panel mean was 62% and the median 63%, both higher than the crowd Polymarket price of 35%. Five of 20 models called the NO outcome; the best-performing caller was Llama 4 Maverick + web search at 36% (near-crowd). The largest misses were high-YES forecasts such as DeepSeek R1 at 85%.
- Outcome: NO, resolved 2026-10-02.
- Crowd: Polymarket price frozen at 35%, it predicted NO.
- Panel: 20 models, 5 called it correctly, mean 62%, median 63%.
- Lowest panel YES probability 36%, highest 85%, disagreement span 49 points.
- Best caller brier 0.13 (Llama 4 Maverick + web search); worst brier 0.723 (DeepSeek R1).
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- DeepSeek R185%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash78%
- DeepSeek V378%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro78%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro76%
- GPT-574%
- Claude Sonnet 4.574%
- Kimi K272%
- Claude Opus 4.168%
- Grok 4.563%
- Perplexity Sonar63%
- GPT-5 Mini62%
- Mistral Large62%
- GPT-5 + web search55%
- Llama 4 Maverick55%
- Qwen3 235B45%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search38%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search38%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search38%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search36%