MARKETS · Settled
Will above 0 jobs be added in September 2026?
The answer: YES
The panel of 20 models averaged 81% YES; 20 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 85%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
September 2026 payrolls came in positive, panel backed YES close to the crowd
The question resolved YES. The panel averaged 81% and median 84% for YES, versus the crowd Polymarket price of 85%. DeepSeek V3 made the strongest call at 95% and recorded the lowest Brier 0.003. The weakest call was Qwen3 235B at 63%, and several low-side records gave no recorded thesis or drivers. Models differed by 32 points between high and low.
- Outcome: YES.
- Panel mean 81%, panel median 84%, crowd (Polymarket price frozen) 85%.
- Best Brier: DeepSeek V3, chance of YES 95%, Brier 0.003.
- Lowest forecast: Qwen3 235B, chance of YES 63%, Brier 0.137.
- Highest minus lowest forecasts 95 to 63, a 32-point disagreement; low-side records lacked recorded arguments.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- DeepSeek V395%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro93%
- GPT-5 + web search92%
- GPT-588%
- DeepSeek R188%
- Claude Sonnet 4.586%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search85%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search85%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search85%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search85%
- Grok 4.582%
- GPT-5 Mini80%
- Llama 4 Maverick80%
- Mistral Large78%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash78%
- Kimi K272%
- Claude Opus 4.172%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro71%
- Perplexity Sonar67%
- Qwen3 235B63%