Will above 10000 jobs be added in October 2026?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel strongly favours Yes, but one outlier sharply disagrees

The panel mean is 83% and the median is 86%, with forecasts ranging from 8% to 98%. Nineteen models lean Yes, so most records agree the probability is high. The split is driven by a single outlier, Kimi K2 at 8%, versus many models clustered above 75%. The dominant signal is broad consensus across models rather than detailed, model-specific arguments.

• Panel mean chance of YES 83%
• Panel median chance of YES 86%
• Highest chance of YES 98% (DeepSeek R1), lowest 8% (Kimi K2)
• Nineteen models lean Yes, one leans No
• Crowd price chance of YES 73%, panel sits above the crowd