MARKETS · Settled
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?
The answer: YES
The panel of 20 models averaged 34% YES; 6 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 79%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Fed hiked 25bps; panel mean 34% vs crowd Polymarket 79%
The Fed did hike by 25bps, the question resolved YES. The panel mean and median were both 34%, well below the crowd Polymarket price of 79% which called it. GPT-5 + web search made the best call, assigning 84% and achieving the lowest Brier, though its record contains no thesis or drivers. Many panel misses also recorded no theses or drivers; the panel ranged from 2% to 84% on the event.
- Outcome: YES, Federal Reserve hiked 25bps at September 2026 meeting.
- Panel mean and median p(YES) both 34%, 6 of 20 models called YES.
- Crowd was Polymarket price frozen at 79%, it called the outcome.
- Best single model: GPT-5 + web search at 84%, Brier 0.026.
- Panel forecasts spanned 2% (Gemini 2.5 Pro) to 84% (GPT-5 + web search).
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- GPT-5 + web search84%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro72%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search62%
- Perplexity Sonar57%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search54%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search53%
- Qwen3 235B45%
- GPT-5 Mini35%
- DeepSeek V335%
- DeepSeek R135%
- Llama 4 Maverick32%
- Mistral Large28%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search28%
- Claude Opus 4.115%
- Claude Sonnet 4.515%
- Kimi K212%
- GPT-512%
- Grok 4.57%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash5%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro2%