MARKETS · Settled
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting?
The answer: NO
The panel of 20 models averaged 60% YES; 4 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 36%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Fed did not hike in September 2026, panel leaned YES while crowd priced NO
The outcome was NO. The crowd's Polymarket price was 36% YES and it called the outcome. The panel mean was 60% YES and median 58%, with only 4 of 20 models predicting NO. The best panel call was GPT-5 + web search at 38% YES, it recorded the lowest YES probability; the worst was DeepSeek R1 at 85% YES. Panel records contained no theses or drivers to explain the divergence.
- Outcome: NO, resolved 2026-09-16 18:15:01.
- The crowd (Polymarket price) was 36% YES and correctly called NO.
- Panel mean 60% YES, median 58% YES, 4 of 20 models called NO.
- Panel range: lowest 38% YES, highest 85% YES, a 47-point spread indicating disagreement.
- No model records included theses, drivers, uncertainty text or sources to justify forecasts.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- DeepSeek R185%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro79%
- Kimi K272%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search71%
- Mistral Large68%
- Grok 4.568%
- DeepSeek V368%
- Llama 4 Maverick68%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash65%
- GPT-5 Mini60%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search55%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search55%
- GPT-554%
- Perplexity Sonar54%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search53%
- Claude Sonnet 4.552%
- Qwen3 235B45%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro44%
- Claude Opus 4.142%
- GPT-5 + web search38%