Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel sceptical, mean 29%, split driven by a few high forecasters

The panel mean is 29% and the median is 27%, with forecasts ranging from 8% to 66%. Most models cluster below the crowd price of 64% and lean against a 25bp hike. The split is driven by a small group of high-forecast agents versus a larger group near or below the median. The single factor doing the most work is the presence of several high probabilities (up to 66%) against many low probabilities (as low as 8%).

• Panel mean: 29%
• Panel median: 27%
• Forecast range: 8% to 66%
• Crowd price: 64%, panel sits well below it
• Only 4 models are marked as leaning yes