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Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?
The panel of 20 models averaged 57% YES. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 36%.
THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME
Panel leans Yes at 57%, large split between 85% and 2%
The panel mean is 0.57 and the median is 0.63, with 15 of 20 models leaning Yes. The panel sits above the crowd price of 36%. Most records favour a 0bps hike, but forecasts range widely, from 85% down to 2%. The split is stark and the records do not provide substantive theses or drivers to explain the gap.
- Panel mean chance of YES is 0.57, median 0.63.
- Highest chance of YES is 0.85 (Gemini 2.5 Pro), lowest is 0.02 (Claude Opus 4.1).
- 15 of 20 models are recorded as leaning Yes.
- Panel sits above the crowd price of 36%.
- Most records contain no thesis, drivers, uncertainty, or sources.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Gemini 2.5 Pro85%
- Kimi K272%
- Mistral Large72%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search69%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search68%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search68%
- Perplexity Sonar68%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search67%
- DeepSeek R165%
- GPT-564%
- Llama 4 Maverick62%
- Grok 4.562%
- Claude Sonnet 4.562%
- GPT-5 Mini57%
- Qwen3 235B52%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro47%
- DeepSeek V335%
- GPT-5 + web search34%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash20%
- Claude Opus 4.12%