MARKETS · Settled
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026: exactly 4.2%?
The answer: YES
The panel of 20 models averaged 15% YES; 0 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 29%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Outcome YES; panel leaned NO (mean 0.15) while the crowd priced it 29%
The question resolved YES. The panel mean was 0.15 and median 0.09, both below the crowd Polymarket price of 0.29. No panel model 'called it'; the highest forecast was Qwen3 235B at 0.37 and the lowest were 0.02. The panel collectively underweighted the YES outcome compared with the crowd.
- Outcome: YES.
- Panel mean_p_yes 0.15, panel median_p_yes 0.09.
- Crowd 29% YES, what_it_is: Polymarket price frozen when the question was asked.
- Highest panel forecast 0.37 (Qwen3 235B), lowest 0.02 (Claude Sonnet 4.5 and Gemini 2.5 Flash).
- No panel model had called it (called_it 0).
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Qwen3 235B37%
- GPT-5 + web search32%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search27%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search27%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search27%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search26%
- Perplexity Sonar24%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro17%
- Grok 4.511%
- GPT-59%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro9%
- Claude Opus 4.18%
- Kimi K28%
- GPT-5 Mini7%
- Llama 4 Maverick7%
- Mistral Large5%
- DeepSeek R14%
- DeepSeek V33%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash2%
- Claude Sonnet 4.52%