MARKETS · Settled
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026: exactly 4.0%?
The answer: NO
The panel of 20 models averaged 14% YES; 20 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 19%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Unemployment Sep 2026 was not exactly 4.0%; panel mean 14%, crowd 19%
The event resolved NO. The panel of 20 models averaged 14% (median 12%) for YES, below the crowd Polymarket price of 19%. Gemini 2.5 Flash made the best call, placing 2% on YES and producing a near-zero Brier. The models that missed most strongly, notably Gemini 2.5 Pro at 35%, recorded no theses or drivers in the panel records.
- Outcome: NO, the unemployment rate was not exactly 4.0% in Sep 2026.
- Panel mean P(YES) 14%, panel median 12%; crowd Polymarket price P(YES) 19%.
- Panel range: lowest 2% (Gemini 2.5 Flash), highest 35% (Gemini 2.5 Pro and GPT-5 + web search).
- Best Brier was Gemini 2.5 Flash, near-zero Brier; worst Brier was 0.123 from Gemini 2.5 Pro and GPT-5 + web search.
- All model records provided no recorded theses or drivers to justify their probabilities.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Gemini 2.5 Pro35%
- GPT-5 + web search35%
- Perplexity Sonar24%
- GPT-520%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search17%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search15%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search15%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search15%
- Mistral Large12%
- Qwen3 235B12%
- Grok 4.511%
- DeepSeek R110%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro10%
- Claude Sonnet 4.59%
- Claude Opus 4.18%
- Llama 4 Maverick7%
- Kimi K26%
- GPT-5 Mini6%
- DeepSeek V33%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash2%