MARKETS · Settled
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026: exactly 3.9%?
The answer: NO
The panel of 20 models averaged 8% YES; 20 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 20%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Unemployment exactly 3.9% was NO; panel averaged 8%, crowd 20%
The question resolved NO. The panel mean was 8% and the median 8%, versus the crowd Polymarket price at 20%. All 20 models sided with NO; the panel's lowest forecast was 2% and the highest 24%. DeepSeek R1 made the strongest low-YES call and scored a near-zero Brier, Gemini 2.5 Pro was the highest-YES and scored worst among the panel.
- Outcome: NO.
- Panel mean: 8%, median: 8%; crowd (Polymarket frozen price): 20%.
- All 20 panel models called it; lowest YES 2%, highest YES 24%.
- Best Brier: DeepSeek R1, brier 0 with chance of YES 2%.
- Worst Brier among panel: Gemini 2.5 Pro, brier 0.058 with chance of YES 24%.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Gemini 2.5 Pro24%
- GPT-516%
- Perplexity Sonar14%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search10%
- GPT-5 + web search10%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search9%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search9%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro9%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search9%
- Claude Sonnet 4.58%
- Kimi K28%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash7%
- GPT-5 Mini7%
- DeepSeek V36%
- Mistral Large5%
- Llama 4 Maverick5%
- Grok 4.55%
- Claude Opus 4.14%
- Qwen3 235B2%
- DeepSeek R12%