Unemployment rate in Oct 2026: exactly 4.2%?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel leans against exact 4.2%: mean 13%, probabilities cluster well below certainty

The panel mean is 13% and the median is 11%, with forecasts ranging from 2% to 24%. Most records assign a low chance that unemployment will be exactly 4.2% in Oct 2026. There is no wide, explicit theoretical split among records; the highest forecasts peak at 24% while the majority are below 20%. The single factor doing most work is the collective low probability assignments across models.

• Panel mean chance of YES is 13%
• Panel median chance of YES is 11%
• Highest model chance of YES is 24%, lowest is 2%
• Panel sits below the crowd price of 22%
• No models state theses, drivers or sources in their records