Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in September 2026?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel sits mildly sceptical, mean 41% with a 22, 62% spread

The panel mean is 41% and the median is 42%, with individual forecasts from 22% to 62%. Most models cluster between 30% and 45%, signalling modest scepticism about core CPI exceeding 2.5% in the year to September 2026. The split is between higher forecasts (up to 62%) and lower forecasts (down to 22%), but the records give no theses, drivers or uncertainty statements to explain those differences. The single argument doing the most work is simply the range of point forecasts themselves, since no model supplied substantive reasons or sources.

• Panel mean chance of YES is 41%, median 42%.
• Forecasts run from lowest 22% to highest 62%.
• Most models sit in the 30, 45% band.
• Three models explicitly 'leaning yes' but no recorded theses.
• No model provided sources, drivers or uncertainty text.