Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.4% for the year ending in September 2026?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel sits near 44% yes, split wide between 62% and 23%

The panel mean is 0.44, median 0.45, with forecasts ranging from 0.23 to 0.62. Most models cluster near 40, 50% and five models explicitly lean Yes. The split is large: a high group (up to 0.62) and a low group (down to 0.23). Models did not provide theses or drivers explaining their positions, so the published probabilities alone do the most work.

• Panel mean 44% YES, median 45% YES.
• Forecasts range from 0.23 to 0.62, spread 39 points.
• Five models flagged a Yes lean.
• Polymarket crowd price was 46%, panel sits slightly below at 44%.