MARKETS · Settled
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in August 2026?
The answer: NO
The panel of 20 models averaged 24% YES; 20 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 29%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Core CPI under 3.4%: panel leaned NO, crowd was 29%, panel mean 24%
The outcome was NO. The crowd price was 29%, the 20-model panel mean sat at 24% with all 20 models calling NO. The strongest calls were the very low probabilities from Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search and GPT-5 + web search at 2%. The higher panel probabilities, up to 45% from Qwen3 235B, still called NO and were the main misses of relative confidence.
- Outcome: NO for core CPI above 3.4% for year ending August 2026.
- Crowd price (frozen) was 29%, panel mean was 24%, median 28%.
- All 20 panel models called NO, lowest p_yes 2%, highest p_yes 45%.
- Top-performing low-confidence calls were multiple models at 2%, 8%.
- Most confident yes was Qwen3 235B at 45%, largest single miss in probability.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Qwen3 235B45%
- Llama 4 Maverick42%
- Kimi K238%
- Claude Sonnet 4.535%
- Claude Opus 4.135%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash35%
- DeepSeek V335%
- Mistral Large35%
- GPT-529%
- Grok 4.528%
- DeepSeek R128%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro26%
- GPT-5 Mini18%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro18%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search8%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search8%
- Perplexity Sonar7%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search3%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search2%
- GPT-5 + web search2%