Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in August 2026?

THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME

Core CPI below 3.1%: panel leaned YES-to-NO split, crowd priced NO at 23%

Outcome: NO, core CPI for the year to August 2026 did not exceed 3.1%. The panel mean was 31% and 19 of 20 models called NO, while the crowd price was 23%. Best calls were the two models that put only 2% on YES. The single miss was Kimi K2, which gave YES 52%.

• Outcome resolved NO on 2026-09-11; forecasting closed 2026-09-11 12:25:00.
• Panel: 20 models, 19 called it, mean_p_yes 31%, median_p_yes 33%.
• Crowd: frozen Polymarket price p_yes 23%, the crowd called it correctly.
• Best numeric forecasts placed YES at 2% (brier 0), worst placed YES at 52% (brier 0.27).