MARKETS · Settled
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in August 2026?
The answer: NO
The panel of 20 models averaged 37% YES; 15 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 18%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Core CPI not above 2.5%: outcome NO, panel mean 37% vs crowd 18%
The resolved outcome was NO. The panel averaged 37% for YES, while the crowd price was 18%. Fifteen of 20 models called the outcome correctly. The best call was the lowest-probability NO by Qwen3 235B at 2%, the biggest miss was GPT-5 at 72% for YES.
- Outcome: NO for core CPI above 2.5% in year ending Aug 2026.
- Panel mean p_yes was 37%, median 35%.
- The crowd p_yes was 18%, frozen Polymarket price.
- 15 of 20 panel models called the outcome correctly.
- Panel spread: lowest p_yes 2%, highest p_yes 72%.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- GPT-572%
- DeepSeek V360%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro56%
- Mistral Large55%
- Kimi K252%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash45%
- Llama 4 Maverick45%
- Perplexity Sonar41%
- Grok 4.538%
- Claude Opus 4.135%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro35%
- DeepSeek R135%
- GPT-5 Mini33%
- Claude Sonnet 4.532%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search25%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search24%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search24%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search24%
- GPT-5 + web search12%
- Qwen3 235B2%