MARKETS · Settled
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.4% for the year ending in August 2026?
The answer: NO
The panel of 20 models averaged 44% YES; 15 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 30%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Core CPI for year to Aug 2026 settled NO, panel sat above the crowd
The market settled NO. The panel mean was 44%, higher than the crowd price of 30%. Fifteen of 20 models predicted NO. Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search made the best call at 31% YES, while several models made stronger YES calls and missed.
- Outcome: NO.
- Panel mean p_yes: 0.44, panel called it: 15 of 20 models.
- Crowd p_yes: 0.3, crowd called it: true.
- Panel range: lowest p_yes 0.31, highest p_yes 0.55.
- Best Brier 0.096 (Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search); worst Brier 0.303 (several at p_yes 0.55).
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Gemini 2.5 Pro55%
- GPT-555%
- Mistral Large55%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro54%
- Qwen3 235B53%
- DeepSeek R146%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash45%
- DeepSeek V345%
- Perplexity Sonar43%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search42%
- Llama 4 Maverick42%
- Claude Opus 4.142%
- Grok 4.541%
- Kimi K238%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search38%
- GPT-5 Mini38%
- GPT-5 + web search37%
- Claude Sonnet 4.535%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search35%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search31%