Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in September 2026?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel sits at 17% that CPI >0.6% in Sept 2026, with a 35-point high, low split

The panel mean is 17% and the median is 17%, with forecasts ranging from 3% to 38%. Most records give low probabilities, clustering below 25%. The panel splits between a small group assigning up to 38% and a small group near 3%, but individual records contain no stated theses or drivers to explain their views. The single argument doing the most work is the panel's broad, low consensus probability itself.

• Panel mean_p_yes is 0.17, median_p_yes is 0.17.
• Highest forecast is 0.38 (Mistral Large), lowest is 0.03 (DeepSeek V3 + web search).
• 20 models submitted forecasts; leaning_yes is 0.
• Crowd price is 26%, the panel mean sits below that at 17%.
• Most models cluster under 25% probability of >0.6% CPI in Sept 2026.