Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in September 2026?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel cautious, mean 27% with wide split: one model at 57%, one at 8%

The panel mean is 27% and the median is 30%, with forecasts ranging from 8% to 57%. Most models place probability well below the crowd price of 60%. Records contain no theses, drivers or sources to explain individual forecasts. The split is between a small group of higher forecasts and a larger group of low forecasts, but the records do not state the evidence or assumptions behind those positions.

• Panel mean 27%, median 30%, crowd chance of YES 60%.
• Highest forecast 57% (Perplexity Sonar Pro), lowest 8% (GPT-5 Mini).
• Only one model leans yes, 1 of 20.
• Most records provide no stated thesis, drivers, uncertainty or sources.
• Forecasts cluster below 40%, majority below 30%.