Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in September 2026?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel leans No at 35%, split by one high-yes outlier and a tight central cluster

The panel mean is 35% Yes, median 36%, with a wide range from 13% to 90%. Most models cluster between 18% and 52%, centring near 42%, 37% for many agents. The panel splits because one model, DeepSeek V3 + web search, sits at 90% while most models place probability well below 50%. The single argument doing the most work is that DeepSeek V3 + web search’s 90% call pulls the maximum far from the rest of the panel.

• Panel mean 35% Yes, median 36%, lowest 13%, highest 90%.
• Crowd price is 67% Yes, the panel sits well below that.
• Most models cluster in the 18%, 52% band, many near 42%, 37%.
• Only 2 models are recorded as leaning Yes.
• A single strong outlier (0.90) creates the largest divergence.