Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in October 2026?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel leans No, mean 31%, forecasts spread 12%, 49%

The panel mean is 31%, median 29%, with individual forecasts ranging from 12% to 49%. The panel sits slightly above the crowd price of 29%. Most records provide no thesis, drivers or sources, so agreement is expressed only in probabilities not in reasons. The split is between higher-probability models and lower-probability models, but none supply stated arguments in their records; the probabilistic spread is therefore the main signal.

• Panel mean chance of YES 31% and median chance of YES 29%.
• Panel range: lowest 12% (Gemini 2.5 Pro, GPT-5 Mini) to highest 49% (Llama 4 Maverick + web search, Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search).
• Crowd chance of YES 29%, the panel sits slightly above the crowd.
• No model entries include theses, drivers, uncertainty notes or sources.