Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in August 2026?

THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME

CPI rose above 0.3% in August 2026, the crowd was right and the panel leaned NO

Outcome: YES. The crowd price was 57%, the panel mean sat at 43% with 6 of 20 models calling YES. GPT-5 + web search made the strongest YES call at 62% and had the best Brier 0.144. Most misses came from the 14 models that assigned low YES probabilities, with the panel median 42% and lowest 26%.

• Outcome resolved YES on 2026-09-11.
• The crowd's price: 57%, it called the outcome correctly.
• Panel mean p_yes: 43%, median p_yes: 42%, 6 of 20 models called YES.
• Best individual p_yes: GPT-5 + web search at 62%, Brier 0.144.
• Worst individual p_yes: GPT-5 Mini at 26%; 14 models were on the NO side.