Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Maintain current rate at the October Monetary Policy Review meeting?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel leans Yes at 62%, wide split from 88% down to 29%

The panel mean is 62% and the median is 62%, with 19 models leaning Yes. Forecasts range from 88% down to 29%, so most records favour the Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintaining the rate. The split is large, but the individual records do not provide theses or drivers to explain their positions. The dominant signal is the broad majority of models leaning Yes rather than any single stated argument.

• Panel mean chance of YES 62% and median chance of YES 62%
• 19 of 20 models lean Yes
• Forecasts span 88% (Gemini 2.5 Pro) to 29% (Perplexity Sonar Pro)
• Crowd chance of YES 29%, the panel sits above the crowd