Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Hike 1-25bps at the October Monetary Policy Review meeting?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel leans No, mean 24% with a wide 5, 47% spread

The panel mean is 24% and the median is 24%, with forecasts ranging from 5% to 47%. Most models place low probability on a 1, 25bp hike. There is a clear split in probabilities, but individual records include no theses, drivers, or uncertainty notes to explain positions. The single numerical argument doing the most work is the cluster of low forecasts around the mid-teens and below.

• Panel mean chance of YES is 24% and median chance of YES is 24%.
• Lowest forecast is 5%, highest is 47%, spread 42 points.
• No model record provides a thesis, drivers, uncertainty, or sources.
• Majority of models sit below 33% probability for a hike.
• Crowd price is 43%, the panel sits well below that.