SPORTS · Closed, awaiting the result
Will FC Bayern München finish first in the final official Bundesliga table for the 2026/27 season on 2027-05-22 (yes/no)?
The panel of 18 models averaged 70% YES.
THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME
Panel leans YES at 70%, split narrowly between 52% and 82%
The panel mean is 70% and the median is 70%, with all 18 models leaning YES. Probabilities range from 52% to 82%, so views are clustered rather than polarized. Most records agree on a modest but consistent tilt toward YES. The single argument doing the most work is the panel’s collective probabilistic consensus centred on 70%.
- Panel mean 70% and median 70%.
- All 18 models lean YES.
- Lowest YES probability 52%, highest 82%.
- Probabilities clustered, indicating modest consensus.
- No crowd price provided in the material.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Perplexity Sonar Pro82%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search82%
- GPT-5 + web search80%
- Perplexity Sonar79%
- Grok 4.5 + web search78%
- DeepSeek R1 + web search75%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search75%
- Mistral Large + web search75%
- GPT-5 Mini + web search72%
- Claude Opus 4.168%
- Qwen3 235B + web search68%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash + web search68%
- Claude Opus 4.1 + web search65%
- Kimi K2 + web search62%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro60%
- GPT-558%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search55%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search52%