Which S&P 500 constituent will have the largest percentage gain in closing share price between the close of trading on 2026-09-07 and the close of trading on 2026-12-31?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel leans to NVIDIA (NVDA) but support is dispersed among volatile tech and biotech names

The panel's favourite is NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), backed by 6 of 15 models. Other support is spread: Moderna (MRNA) has two backers, and single votes go to Arista Networks (ANET), Bloom Energy (BE), Carnival Corp. (CCL) and Micron Technology (MU). Records split between large-cap AI‑exposure names and smaller, higher‑volatility candidates; confidence scores range widely. The dominant argument is NVDA's outsized volatility and leverage to AI demand, which several records cite as the main path to a top percentage gain.

• 15 models made picks, naming 9 distinct companies in total.
• NVIDIA has 6 backers, Moderna 2, and ANET, BE, CCL, MU have single backers each.
• Many records lean on reference classes where winners are high‑volatility or catalyst‑driven stocks.
• NVDA supporters point to AI leadership, past rapid gains and potential guidance/earnings catalysts.
• Other supporters emphasise inclusion effects, biotech trial readouts, memory‑cycle momentum or holiday/consumer sentiment.