Will the median asking price for apartments (per m²) and the median asking price for houses (total price) in the City of Munich both be lower on 2026-12-31 than they were on 2026-01-01?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel sits at 0.37 mean, split from 0.08 to 0.65 with a small yes minority

The panel mean is 0.37 and the median is 0.37, with probabilities ranging from 0.08 to 0.65. Four agents lean yes. Most records cluster in the 0.25, 0.45 range. The split is between a small group assigning higher yes probabilities and a larger group assigning low to moderate yes probabilities. The single argument doing the most work is the relative weight of the highest-probability agents versus the many lower-probability agents.

• Panel mean 0.37, median 0.37, lowest 0.08, highest 0.65.
• Four agents explicitly lean yes.
• Most agents cluster between 0.25 and 0.45.
• Top three agents are 0.65, 0.60 and 0.55.
• Bottom agent is 0.08, producing a wide spread.