What will the percent change in the BloombergNEF global PV module price index be between 2026-09-22 and 2027-03-22?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Median outlook modestly negative, estimates cluster between −5% and 0% with a small pro‑upside tail

Panel median is -3.5% with a range from -8% to 2.5%. Most records expect modest declines or near‑term stability, noting recent month‑on‑month price rises in premium segments and a strong PMI. The estimates split where some models count margin recovery, policy and premium‑module strength as offsetting oversupply, while others emphasise excess capacity and falling input costs. The single argument doing the most work across records is the historical reference class of six‑month module price moves during an oversupply period, implying small negative changes on balance.

• Panel median -3.5%, lowest -8%, highest 2.5%.
• Many models cite March 2026 month‑on‑month rises in TOPCon and Back Contact prices.
• Several records point to a PV PMI of 68 signalling strong purchasing sentiment.
• Downside case rests on continued oversupply and capacity above demand into 2026.
• Policy and trade changes, and upstream input‑cost moves, are the main offsets.