On what date will the European Central Bank first announce an increase in its deposit facility rate?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel median 18 Sep 2026, estimates cluster in mid‑2026 to late‑2026 with a tail to 2028

The panel median is 2026-09-18, with individual estimates ranging from 2026-06-11 to 2028-03-14. Most records treat the first hike as a near‑term decision tied to scheduled Governing Council meetings in mid to late 2026. Estimates split where records interpret different ECB press releases: several cite an announced increase on 2026-09-10, a smaller group records an earlier 2026-06-11 announcement, and a few push the first hike well into 2027, 2028 based on an assumed prolonged easing cycle. The single argument doing the most work is direct citation of ECB press releases or the ECB website giving a specific publication date for a rate increase.

• Median date across 18 models is 2026-09-18.
• Lowest estimate is 2026-06-11, highest is 2028-03-14.
• Many models base calls on specific ECB press releases or the ECB website.
• A cluster expects the first hike at a scheduled Governing Council meeting in mid, late 2026.
• Outliers delaying to 2027, 2028 lean on the view that easing and weak inflation/growth postpone tightening.