Will the euro (EUR) be higher versus the US dollar (USD) on 2026-09-30 than the ECB reference EUR/USD exchange rate published on 2026-09-06?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel sits at 50%, very tight split, probabilities range 47%, 52%

The panel mean is 50%, with values tightly spread from 47% to 52%. Most records cluster at or near 50%, producing no clear consensus. The split is slight but leans yes: 10 models explicitly lean yes while the highest probabilities come from five models at 52%. The single factor doing the most work is the small numerical edge provided by those top models assigning 52% (and two more at 51%), which nudges the mean to 50%.

• Panel mean 50%, median 50%
• Probabilities range from 47% to 52%
• Ten models are recorded as leaning yes
• Five models report the highest p_yes of 52%
• No crowd price provided