The Next 20 Years Will Be Marked By The Collapse Of The Exponential Function

The Next 20 Years Will Be Marked By The Collapse Of The Exponential Function

Perhaps there was a time when it wasn’t important to be knowledgeable, but now is not that time. I highly recommend everybody watch/listen to this, because it is the best thing I have seen for a while showing the big picture of where we are, and where we are going:

Since all our money is loaned onto existence, our economy has to grow exponentially. Martenson proves this point empirically by showing a 99.9% fit of the actual growth curve of the last 40 years to an exponential curve. If we wanted to continue on this path, our debt load would have to double again over the next 10 years. By continually increasing our debt relative to GDP we are making the assumption that our future will always be wealthier than our past. He believes that this assumption is flawed and that the debt loads are already unmanageable.

Martenson explains how exponential growth works and why it is so scary that our economy is based on it. In an example he illustrates how unimaginably fast things speed up towards the end of an exponential curve. He shows that an exponential chart can be found in every one of the three “E’s” for instance in GDP growth, oil production, water use or species extinction. Due to the natural limitations on resources, Martenson comes to the conclusion that we are facing a serious energy crisis.

This energy predicament is namely that the quantity of oil as well as the quality of oil are in decline. He shows that oil discoveries peaked in 1964 and oil production peaked 40 years later. Martenson also shows how our return on invested energy is rapidly declining – the “cheap and easy” oil fields have already been exploited. In 1930 the energy return for oil was 100:1 or greater. Today it is already down to 3:1 and newer technologies such as corn-based ethanol only provide a 1.5:1 return. Martenson predicts that the time in between oil shocks will get shorter and shorter and that oil prices will go much higher.

Not only oil but also other natural resources are being rapidly used up as well. At the current projected pace of use, known reserves for many metals and minerals will be gone within the next 10 to 20 years. The energy needed to get these non-renewable resources out of the ground is growing exponentially. So we live in a world that must grow, but can’t grow and is subject to depletion. The conclusion out of all this is that our money system is poorly designed and that we need to rethink how we do things as quickly as possible.

VIA ZeroHedge


  1. nikita bandoleras 7 years ago

    It has nothing got to do with exponetial curves or any kind of curve at all ……….

    It is a simple characteristic of “Greed”, read jean pierre lehman of IMD in Switzerland ….

    At start of last century China was broke, we went there and took advantage of their situation for our gain, n then allowed Financial institutions to influence / lobby western governments to extremes with non regulation, they sold money to individuals and companies and put all of western world in extreme debt like we are today, n situation todays is not unlike what happened in 1931 when austrian bank drove us into great depression n situation supported rise of fascism in Europe and WW2.

    All that will happen is a massive transfer of wealth from the West to the East facilitated by our beliefs in free world trade and manipulated by Chinas mercantilism with pegged Renembi at very low value ………. until we feel the pain of our children not having any opportunites to get meaningful employment ………… then we will change and protect our western societies by trade war / protectionism, …… or war.

    The West really screwed up to extremes and grossly mismanaged our economies to Financial Institutions greed and left future generations of the West to pay …………….

    As Joseph Stiglitz wrote some time ago, the current form of capitalism will not work well for society in the future it needs adjusting.

    China, Turkey, northern Africa, Chile, Brazil, Malaysia, India, Indonesia,and Australia are in good shape not following advice of Westerners economically ……….

    Cest la vie, its now our turn to grasp reality, accept a lowering of our standards of life which we cannot afford ………. back to hard work, competetiveness, …….. and some decent leadership in Europe and USA instead of all the cronysim and incompetence we have experienced in last 10years.

    • Author
      admin 7 years ago

      Thanks for commenting but did you actually watch the video? Most of what you said is true, but it is background noise reverberating in the big picture. It also doesn’t in any way invalidate what he talks about. I have been researching these topics for 7 years and they have brought me to the same conclusions as Chris Martenson.

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