The hungry dragon (Some numbers).

The hungry dragon (Some numbers).

Because I am kind of a geek sometimes, I thought it would be fun to have a look at some data from China and run a few numbers after I read this article.

If China keeps growing at 7.5% they will need double the oil they use now, in 9.3 years. Even assuming nobody else has any growth there is no way in hell they will be able to find an extra 9 million barrels a day (around 18mb/d total or about twice what Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer produces per day). If we take it a little further out, to the next doubling time in just over 18 years time, when my son reaches his 18th birthday, China will be needing 36 MILLION barrels every day.

There is no way there will be enough Oil to go around pretty soon, when it is being consumed at 86.4 mb/d at the moment and world wide oil discoveries have been less than annual production, since 1980.


  1. koskesh 8 years ago

    …thats great fun, what a coincidence, this is exactly the data I was looking for all week…thx piers

    • Author
      ptsp 8 years ago

      As hard as it may be to understand when your life is spent immersed in trivialities, this data will have more impact on yours and my future than who wins the world cup, who beat who in F1 or anything else you may (or may not) be able to think about.

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