Super spike


Things are getting seriously out of control alarmingly quickly. Oil up $16 in 2 days??!! The biggest jump ever recorded, to $139.2 a barrel.

US unemployment figures surged to 5.5 percent in May from 5 percent, the sharpest monthly spike in 22 years, the dollar dipped and the dow dropped 3%, the biggest drop in more than 15 months in both percentage and points terms..

At the same time Israel’s transportation minister and a deputy prime minister, Shaul Mofaz, said Friday that an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites looked “unavoidable” if Iran did not abandon its nuclear program (how can they abandon something they have already said they are not doing??!) and since they are the 2nd biggest producer of oil within Opec this had a major impact on the price sending it jumping even further.

The airlines especially are taking a major hit right now as they have no viable business plan for surviving with oil at even half this price. Reuters reports a host of smaller European airlines are likely to go bankrupt in coming months if the oil price does not drop significantly below current levels, to add to the 24 which have gone bust this year already.

How much longer can people go about business as usual with Oil at this price? Not long I would say. The current petrol price, already crippling to those with long commutes is apparently only reflecting oil at $90 a barrel, the truckers are striking causing breakdowns in the delivery system, the fishermen are striking, and the global economy is tanking. My mum says not to worry about these things since there wont be a major breakdown in her lifetime. The evidence is already (unfortunately for me, her and everyone else) starting to prove to the contrary.
Interesting times.


  1. Author
    ptsp 8 years ago

    The auto industry has to deny the future, much as a terminal cancer patient must deny the future – but car buyers do not – AND WILL NOT. It is not long before the public figures out that any car they buy today will outlive its fuel supply. Their reaction will be swift and sure. They will stop buying new cars powered by gasoline and diesel with an internal combustion engine. I know I am not going to buy a new car given the outlook. Would you buy a new car?

  2. Author
    ptsp 8 years ago

    we see a sharp decline in production from the existing oil fields, especially in the North Sea, the USA and many non-OPEC countries. Even here money should be invested, to slow down that decline. The third reason why we expect a risk for overall production is, that we looked at all oil exploration projects around the world: 230 altogether, in Saudi-Arabia, Venezuela, the North-Sea, everywhere. Even if all those projects which are already funded will be implemented, the overall capacity they can bring for new oil production is too little.

    Schneider: How much is missing?

    Birol: Exactly 12.5 million barrel a day are still missing, about 15 % of the global oil demand (the current global oil consumption is 84 million barrel a day, note from the editor). This gap means that we could face a supply shortage and very high prices during the next years.

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