The Black Swan – by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

This book is really superb. Taleb uses the Black Swan idea to explain the existence and occurrence of high-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations.  He writes about the impact of the highly improbable, which have a much greater impact on things than the probable (and usually misunderstood) and our tendency to simplify and therefore not see the whole picture.

Taleb regards almost all major scientific discoveries, historical events, and artistic accomplishments as “black swans”—undirected and unpredicted,  although AFTER the fact, the event is rationalized by hindsight, as if it had been expected.

Some nights it is so brilliant, I find myself reluctantly putting the book down as my eyelids droop and then not being able to sleep because it sets me off thinking for hours. Occasionally on other nights it gets a little boring and sends me to sleep pretty quickly which is not a bad thing either! Anyway, here are some of the standout sections so far. I really cant recommend it highly enough:


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