World Energy Outlook 2011

Oil demand (excluding biofuels) rises from 87 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2010 to 99 mb/d in 2035. The total number of passenger cars doubles to almost 1.7 billion in 2035. Sales in non-OECD markets exceed those in the OECD by 2020, with the centre of gravity of car manufacturing shifting to non-OECD countries before 2015. The rise in oil use comes despite some impressive gains in fuel economy in many regions, notably for passenger vehicles in Europe and for heavy freight in the United States. Alternative vehicle technologies emerge that use oil much more efficiently or not at all, such as electric vehicles, but it takes time for them to become commercially viable and penetrate markets. With limited potential for substitution for oil as a transportation fuel, the concentration of oil demand in the transport sector makes demand less responsive to changes in the oil price (especially where oil products are subsidised).
The cost of bringing oil to market rises as oil companies are forced to turn to more difficult and costly sources to replace lost capacity and meet rising demand. Production of conventional crude oil – the largest single component of oil supply – remains at current levels before declining slightly to around 68 mb/d by 2035.

(Editors note: So as expected, we are on the bumpy plateau of peak oil, and as expected the first damaging effects are economic as has been witnessed since 2008)

To compensate for declining crude oil production at existing fields, 47 mb/d of gross capacity additions are required, twice the current total oil production of all OPEC countries in the Middle East.

Over the next 25 years, 90% of the projected growth in global energy demand comes from non-OECD economies; China alone accounts for more than 30%, consolidating its position as the world’s largest energy consumer. In 2035, China consumes nearly 70% more energy than the United States, the second-largest consumer, even though, by then, per-capita energy consumption in China is still less than half the level in the United States. The rates of growth in energy consumption in India, Indonesia, Brazil and the Middle East are even faster than in China.


(Editors note: Interesting report which confirms a lot of what has been said for a while about peak oil, but it seems like they tend to make projections with a ruler and don’t take into account the KNOWN unkowns, yet alone the significantly larger quantity of UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS, I.E. The non-linear economic and social effects)


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