Oil Discoveries and Volume Per Decade

Matt Simmons, in his most recent presentation at the ASPO conference published that “BEST CASE 2020, World Crude production would be 55mm to 60mm bpd” – that’s down from 73 million bpd. When the export land model comes into play, that doesnt leave much oil for anyone hoping to import it (almost everyone).

I got into a back and forth with a friend of mine who was saying we will likely find some more oil. Whilst it is quite possible, the likelihood of discovering any more (easily accessible and cost effective) super-giant oil fields is fairly remote after searching for so long.

Based on the graphic below from the oil megaprojects page, how many discoveries producing greater than 1 million barrels a day of oil have been found since the 70’s?

The answer is 0.


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