Matt Simmons, in his most recent presentation at the ASPO conference published that “BEST CASE 2020, World Crude production would be 55mm to 60mm bpd” – that’s down from 73 million bpd. When the export land model comes into play, that doesnt leave much oil for anyone hoping to import it (almost everyone).
I got into a back and forth with a friend of mine who was saying we will likely find some more oil. Whilst it is quite possible, the likelihood of discovering any more (easily accessible and cost effective) super-giant oil fields is fairly remote after searching for so long.
Based on the graphic below from the oil megaprojects page, how many discoveries producing greater than 1 million barrels a day of oil have been found since the 70’s?
The answer is 0.