Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure, says whistleblower

Based on reading so many reports from geologists and over the last 5 years I knew they were lying about the official figures, but the truth is out. Scary sh1t because the significance of this is daunting.

The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.

Now the “peak oil” theory is gaining support at the heart of the global energy establishment. “The IEA in 2005 was predicting oil supplies could rise as high as 120m barrels a day by 2030 although it was forced to reduce this gradually to 116m and then 105m last year,” said the IEA source, who was unwilling to be identified for fear of reprisals inside the industry. “The 120m figure always was nonsense but even today’s number is much higher than can be justified and the IEA knows this.

“Many inside the organisation believe that maintaining oil supplies at even 90m to 95m barrels a day would be impossible but there are fears that panic could spread on the financial markets if the figures were brought down further. And the Americans fear the end of oil supremacy because it would threaten their power over access to oil resources,” he added.

But as far back as 2004 there have been people making similar warnings. Colin Campbell, a former executive with Total of France told a conference: “If the real [oil reserve] figures were to come out there would be panic on the stock markets … in the end that would suit no one.”

Read the full article here……
And this publishd in Paris earlier today. IEA World Energy Outlook Executive Summary

As conventional oil production in countries not belonging to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) peaks around 2010, most of the increase in output would need to come from OPEC countries, which hold the bulk of remaining recoverable conventional oil resources…

They also posted this on their site today:
With respect to recent discussion about oil decline rates, we are exceptionally making available the respective chapter of last year’s WEO 2008. FIELD-BY-FIELD ANALYSIS OF OIL PRODUCTION.
Is decline accelerating?

Small write up and some insightful comments over on theoildrum.



  1. Author
    ptsp 7 years ago

    Couple of excerpts:
    Our field-by-field analysis of decline rates allows us to obtain a reasonable estimate
    of the average decline rates for all the fields in the world, weighted by production. All
    the decline rates presented so far in this chapter are based on field-by-field production
    data from our database, covering 798 fields. The average size of these fields —
    predominantly super-giants and giants — is significantly larger than the average size of
    all the fields in the world. The 580 fields included in our analysis of post-peak decline

    rates produced 40.5 mb/d of crude oil in 2007 — equal to 58% of world production.

    …we estimate that the average observed decline rate worldwide is 6.7%. Were
    that rate to be applied to 2007 crude oil production, the annual loss of output would
    be 4.7 mb/d.

  2. Author
    ptsp 7 years ago

    Industrial Civilisation at a turning point

    In the following declaration, Dr. Jeremy Leggett, former member of the UK Government Renewables advisory board and one of “the key players in putting climate change on the world agenda” according to Time Magazine41, described in 2006 how the crisis could unfold:

    “The price of houses will collapse. Stock markets will crash. Within a short period, human wealth — little more than a pile of paper at the best of times, even with the confidence about the future high among traders — will shrivel. There will be emergency summits, diplomatic initiatives, urgent exploration efforts, but the turmoil will not subside. Thousands of companies will go bankrupt, and millions will be unemployed… The earth has always been a dangerous place, but now it will become a tinderbox.”42

    World leaders are debating on how we should manage the current economic crisis that none of them saw coming, but they shouldn’t be surprised by it. In a 2006 interview, Dr. Colin Campbell effectively forecasted the 2008 oil spike, which was to be followed by a recession and a subsequent fall in oil prices–a scenario that unfolded exactly as he said:

    “I think we are facing an oil price shock, 100 or 200 dollars a barrel, an economic recession that cuts demand, and I will not be at all surprised if a fall in demand would make the price collapse again. So we might be back to 20 or 30 dollars a barrel next year perhaps. And so you have a price shock, a recession, a recovery, hits again the falling capacity limit, another price shock. And so I think that in the next few years, we have a sequence of vicious circles and gradually the reality of the situation will filtered through. We are on for a very volatile few years with enormous economic consequences”43

    This extract from the Energy Watch Group study on oil production provides useful additional information:

    “The world is at the beginning of a structural change of its economic system. This change will be triggered by declining fossil fuel supplies and will influence almost all aspects of our daily life… The now beginning transition period probably has its own rules which are valid only during this phase. Things might happen which we never experienced before and which we may never experience again once this transition period has ended.”47

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