Disruptive changes



In light of this article with the U.S. Department of Energy admitting to the likelihood of a decline in energy as of 2011 I thought I would post some more from the Tipping point article I linked to before.

We are at the cusp of rapid and severely disruptive changes. From now on the risk of entering a collapse must be considered significant and rising. The challenge is not about how we introduce energy infrastructure to maintain the viability of the systems we depend upon, rather it is how we deal with the consequences of not having the energy and other resources to maintain those same systems. Appeals towards localism, transition initiatives, organic food and renewable energy production, however laudable and necessary, are totally out of scale to what is approaching.

There is no solution, though there are some paths that are better and wiser than others. This is a societal issue, there is no „other‟ to blame, but the responsibility belongs to us all. What we require is rapid emergency planning coupled with a plan for longer-term adaptation.
From the Tipping point .pdf I posted before

Bigger excerpt and graph below:

  • A decline in energy flows will reduce global economic production; reduced global production will undermine our ability to produce, trade, and use energy; which will further decrease economic production.
  • Credit forms the basis of our monetary system, and is the unifying embedded structure of the global economy. In a growing economy debt and interest can be repaid, in a declining economy not even the principle can be paid back. In other words, reduced energy flows cannot maintain the economic production to service debt. Real debt outstanding in the world is not repayable, new credit will almost vanish.
  • Our localized needs and welfare have become ever-more dependent upon hyper- integrated globalised supply-chains. One pillar of their system-wide functioning is monetary confidence and bank intermediation. Money in our economies is backed by debt and holds no intrinsic value; deflation and hyper-inflation risks will make monetary stability impossible to maintain. In addition, the banking system as a whole must become insolvent as their assets (loans) cannot be realised, they are also at risk from failing infrastructure.
  • A failure of this pillar will collapse world trade. Our ‘local’ globalised economies will fracture for there is virtually nothing produced in developed countries that can be considered truly indigenous. The more complex the systems and inputs we rely upon, the more globalised they are, and the more we are at risk from a complete systemic collapse.
  • This will evolve as a systemic crisis; as the integrated infrastructure of our civilisation breaks down. It will give rise to a multi-front predicament that will swamp governments‟ ability to manage. It is likely to lead to widespread disorientation, anxiety, severe welfare risks, and possible social breakdown. The report argues that a managed „de-growth‟ is impossible.
  • The high dependence of food on fossil fuel inputs, the delocalisation of food sourcing, and lean just-in-time inventories could lead to quickly evolving food insecurity risks even in the most developed countries. At issue is not just food production, but the ability to link surpluses to deficits, collapsed purchasing power, and the ability to monetize
    transactions.
  • Peak oil is likely to force peak energy in general. The ability to bring on new energy production and maintain existing energy infrastructure is likely to be severely compromised.  We may see massive demand and supply collapses with limited ability to re-boot.
  • The above mechanisms are non-linear, mutually re-enforcing, and not exclusive.
  • We argue that one of the principle initial drivers of the collapse process will be growing visible action about peak oil. It is expected that investors will attempt to extract themselves from „virtual assets‟ such as bond, equities, and cash and convert them into „real‟ assets before the system collapses. But the nominal value of virtual assets vastly exceeds the real assets likely to be available. Confirmation of the peak oil idea (by official action), fear, and market decline will drive a positive feedback in financial markets.

2 Comments

  1. brisc 6 years ago

    awesome article mate, well received

    “there’s always a technical solution to a problem”
    – let’s put some effort into this issue and we’ll have a solution in time, that’s my opinion. God (or who ever made us) wanted us to think. That’s the purpose of life (and I’m not religious here). Problem -> Think Think Think -> Solution.

    -> hydrino-state power: fake or reality? Can the electron of a hydrogen atom fall into a state which is lower than the ground state? If yes, we had a solution to the problem and would have answered the dark matter question. State of the art? There are “indicators” that exactly this already works (http://www.blacklightpower.com).

    -> nuclear fusion: when is it ready to go? If we make it, we would have solved the equation. Impossible? We would HAVE this technology already, if we would have spent the money we’ve spent on military during the last couple of years on this instead.

    -> solar power: leave the fusion on the sun, it’s doing an awesome job there, no science to be done, no answering of questions without having any answers, this is just a matter of saying yes or no, a choice – it couldn’t be simpler. It’s going great in Europe (http://www.desertec.org/en/foundation/).

    -> nuclear power: has nothing to do with nuclear weapons (tell that somebody on the street). We have found that there is an (very close to) unlimited amount of uranium on the planet, nuclear power is unlimited (!) since there is about 3 mg of uranium in just 1 (!) cubic meter of sea water. Nuclear waste? Egyptian pyramids have structurally survived 5000 years (!) and are in near perfect condition. Let’s be realistic, if we invested in it, we could store nuclear waste for much longer than the egyptians stored their mummies for.

    Humanity disappoints. We’re not mature enough yet to solve such things together – hand in hand? This drives tears into my eyes, we can’t be serious about this! There must be a paradigm shift in society – it’s not about me only, it’s about the next generation, it’s about man, it’s about life. Whatever there is after this great adventure, we won’t be judged on how much money we pulled in. It’s much more likely that we’ll be judged by how much difference we have made – how much advance did we bring?

  2. Author
    ptsp 6 years ago

    Some interesting links, thanks for that. I guess we will soon see over the coming years. I dont think there is a technical solution for everything, the same way as I dont think you can always achieve or have something by really wanting it.
    Almost all technology requires the use of oil too.

    Since we live on a finite planet, even if they could be found, almost all of the replacements for objects in the list below would come from other non renewable and energy intensive sources.

    Another aspect is that energy is only a small part of the mix, since we use oil for:

    Solvents
    Motor Oil
    Bearing Grease
    Ink
    Floor Wax
    Ballpoint Pens
    Football Cleats
    Upholstery
    Sweaters
    Boats
    Insecticides
    Bicycle Tires
    Sports Car Bodies
    Nail Polish
    Fishing lures
    Dresses
    Tires
    Golf Bags
    Perfumes
    Cassettes
    Dishwasher
    Tool Boxes
    Shoe Polish
    Motorcycle Helmet
    Caulking
    Petroleum Jelly
    Transparent Tape
    CD Player
    Faucet Washers
    Antiseptics
    Clothesline
    Curtains
    Food Preservatives
    Basketballs
    Soap
    Vitamin Capsules
    Antihistamines
    Purses
    Shoes
    Dashboards
    Cortisone
    Deodorant
    Footballs
    Putty
    Dyes
    Panty Hose
    Refrigerant
    Percolators
    Life Jackets
    Rubbing Alcohol
    Linings
    Skis
    TV Cabinets
    Shag Rugs
    Electrician’s Tape
    Tool Racks
    Car Battery Cases
    Epoxy
    Paint
    Mops
    Slacks
    Insect Repellent
    Oil Filters
    Umbrellas
    Yarn
    Fertilizers
    Hair Coloring
    Roofing
    Toilet Seats
    Fishing Rods
    Lipstick
    Denture Adhesive
    Linoleum
    Ice Cube Trays
    Synthetic Rubber
    Speakers
    Plastic Wood
    Electric Blankets
    Glycerin
    Tennis Rackets
    Rubber Cement
    Fishing Boots
    Dice
    Nylon Rope
    Candles
    Trash Bags
    House Paint
    Water Pipes
    Hand Lotion
    Roller Skates
    Surf Boards
    Shampoo
    Wheels
    Paint Rollers
    Shower Curtains
    Guitar Strings
    Luggage
    Aspirin
    Safety Glasses
    Antifreeze
    Football Helmets
    Awnings
    Eyeglasses
    Clothes
    Toothbrushes
    Ice Chests
    Footballs
    Combs
    CD’s
    Paint Brushes
    Detergents
    Vaporizers
    Balloons
    Sun Glasses
    Tents
    Heart Valves
    Crayons
    Parachutes
    Telephones
    Enamel
    Pillows
    Dishes
    Cameras
    Anesthetics
    Artificial Turf
    Artificial limbs
    Bandages
    Dentures
    Model Cars
    Folding Doors
    Hair Curlers
    Cold cream
    Movie film
    Soft Contact lenses
    Drinking Cups
    Fan Belts
    Car Enamel
    Shaving Cream
    Ammonia
    Refrigerators
    Golf Balls
    Toothpaste

    This is only 144 of the over 6000 items that are manufactured using petroleum based products

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