A Cherry-Picker’s Guide to Temperature Trends (down, flat–even up)

There are obvious problems inherant in looking at a short period of time out of context and thinking you can base any concrete future projections on it (in the same way as an insect born and dying on one rainy summer day might think all days are the same), so lets look at the recent global temperatures within the longer term perspective. Did man contribute to global warming from the year 200 until the years 850AD – 900AD, which were the hottest over the last 2000 years? Significantly hotter than now in fact, ending in the medieval warm period. Did we contribute to the following temperature decline after that over the next 800 years which ended in the Little ice age?  How about the runup starting in 1700?

No. Temperature fluctuations are completely normal.

How many ‘Hockey sticks’ can you see, both up and down? Can you with any degree of certainty make any conclusions about what the temperature might be in 500 years from this chart below? How about 100 years? If you think you know, did you take into account orbital eccentricity, obliquity, and precession of Earth’s movements? How about the Sun? How about the thousands of other factors we know about? How about the almost infinite number of unseen or unknown variables, the things you (and yes, even scientists) dont know? How did you weigh the importance of each of these things?


More below the fold:

How about over an even bigger time scale, like this?


I think the main point here, is that the temperature is always changing on earth, and if the earth wants to get colder, or it wants to get warmer, it will, and there is absolutely nothing (not to be confused with there being something we can do about pollution) of any significance that people (even megalomanic politicians) can do. Even by taxing their citizens.

Here are a few general statements that can be supported using my Cherry-Pickers Guide:

• For the past 8 years (96 months), no global warming is indicated by any of the five datasets.

• For the past 5 years (60 months), there is a statistically significant global cooling in all datasets.

• For the past 15 years, global warming has been occurring at a rate that is below the average climate model expected warming

And here are a few more specific examples that the seasoned cherry-picker could tease out:

• There has been no (statistically significant) warming for the past 13 years. [Using the satellite records of the lower atmosphere].

• The globe has been cooling rapidly for the past 8 years. [Using the CRU and satellite records]



1 Comment

  1. Author
    ptsp 6 years ago

    Ahahahaha, this is pretty funny. Religious fervor!:

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